2026 Housing Market Forecast: What Buyers & Sellers Need to Know

The 2026 housing market is shaping up to be more balanced and buyer-friendly than the past several years, according to the latest Realtor.com National Housing Forecast. After a long period of tight inventory and high prices, several key indicators suggest gradual improvement — though challenges remain for many prospective buyers.

2026 Housing Market Outlook — Key Trends

1. Market Balance Shifts Toward Buyers

Realtor.com’s forecast projects an average of 4.6 months of supply in 2026 — still within a balanced market range, but a notable improvement compared to seller-dominated conditions seen in recent years. That means buyers may start to see more negotiating power and less competition than in prior cycles.

2. Mortgage Rates Expected to Ease Slightly

Mortgage rates are forecast to hover around 6.3% on average next year — down ever so slightly from 2025’s average but still higher than the low-rate environment prior to 2023. This modest decrease in rates can help improve affordability for many buyers.

3. Home Prices Continue to Rise — Slowly

Home prices are expected to grow roughly 2.2% in 2026 — a slower pace than the double-digit growth seen during the pandemic but still steady. Interestingly, when adjusting for inflation, prices may slightly decline in real terms, meaning homes become marginally more affordable relative to wage growth.

Inventory & Sales: A More Sustainable Market

Realtor.com forecasts that existing-home sales will grow by about 1.7% in 2026 to roughly 4.13 million transactions. While this is a modest gain, it signals a slow return toward healthier levels after historically low sales in 2025. Meanwhile, housing inventory is expected to increase about 8.9%, giving buyers more choice and less pressure in many markets.

Affordability: Signs of Improvement

One of the most important developments in the 2026 forecast is that the typical monthly mortgage payment is expected to fall slightly, marking the first annual decline in affordability pressure since 2020. With mortgage rates stabilizing and incomes growing faster than home prices, buyers may finally see a more affordable market.

Local Market Nuances: What to Watch

While national trends are important, real estate remains fundamentally local. Realtor.com’s data shows regional differences — some markets will see stronger price growth and sales, while others might experience softer conditions. For example:

• Affordability and growth opportunities in more affordable regions

• Some high-demand metros may still be tight

• Certain cities could even see price dips due to rising inventory and changing buyer preferences.

What This Means for You

Buyers:

• More homes to choose from

• Slightly lower monthly payments

• Better negotiating positions

Challenges Remain:

• Affordability is improving slowly

• Inventory still hasn’t fully returned to pre-pandemic levels

• Mortgage rates remain higher than in previous years

Final Takeaway

The 2026 housing market will likely be one of slow but meaningful improvement — a return toward balance with measured price growth, easing rates, and more inventory. It won’t be a dramatic turnaround, but for buyers and sellers prepared with the right strategy, this year presents real opportunities.

Ready to Make Your Move in 2026? Let’s Get You Prepared.

Whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring your options as the 2026 housing market takes shape, having the right strategy matters. As a Sarasota native and full-time real estate professional, I help you navigate the market with clarity, data, and confidence.

For Buyers: Start Your Financing Plan

Get pre-approved, explore loan options, and understand your buying power before the market shifts again.👉 Start here: https://www.keithcurcio.com/financing

For Sellers: Get Your Home’s True Market Value

See what your property could sell for in today’s market with a free, accurate home valuation.👉 Check your home value: https://consumer.hifello.com/lp/683f29fd05c5f50036a7861e

Want Personalized Guidance? Let’s Talk.

If you want a customized analysis of how this 2026 housing forecast affects your next move — locally or nationally — schedule a quick consultation.👉 Book a call: https://www.keithcurcio.com/contact-me