Sarasota Housing Market Update: What the Summer 2026 Numbers Mean for Our Coast

Florida just posted its ninth straight month of year-over-year sales growth, and the early summer indicators are pointing the same direction. That's the statewide headline. But if you own a home on Longboat Key or you're shopping in Lakewood Ranch, the number that matters isn't the state average — it's what's happening in your price band, on your street. Here's the data, and here's how I read it for our coastal market.

The statewide picture: nine months of momentum

Through May 2026, Florida closed sales rose year over year for the ninth consecutive month across both single-family homes and the condo-townhouse category. Single-family closings came in at 24,915 statewide (up about half a percent from a year ago), while condos and townhouses reached 8,897 — a 6.6% jump. Steady, not explosive, but a streak this long tells you the market has found a rhythm rather than a sugar high.

The more interesting signal is what's coming. New pending sales — contracts signed but not yet closed — rose 4.8% for single-family homes and 9% for condos and townhouses. Pending sales are a forward-looking gauge: they show where demand is building right now, which is a far more current read than closed sales that reflect deals struck 30 to 60 days ago.

Florida Realtors' chief economist was candid about the nuance. The single-family pending gain, in his words, isn't quite enough to guarantee the closed-sales streak survives into June, though it's a real possibility. The condo-townhouse side, up 9%, looks far more secure heading into next month. Translation: demand is real, but it isn't moving evenly across every property type — and that unevenness is exactly where local knowledge earns its keep.

What this means for the Sarasota coastal market

State numbers are a backdrop, not a forecast for your home. Our corridor — Longboat Key, Sarasota, Venice and Englewood, Bradenton, and Lakewood Ranch — behaves differently from the statewide blend, especially in the $750K–$3M range where insurance, association assessments, and buyer profiles shift the math.

That local layer is the whole point. A 9% statewide condo bump doesn't automatically describe a Longboat Key tower with a new assessment, and a flat statewide single-family number can hide a genuinely competitive segment in Lakewood Ranch. Reading the difference is the job.

The rate question — and a wildcard most people are missing

Everything still hinges on mortgage rates. Inflation has been creeping up, driven largely by energy prices, and that's kept rates higher than where the year started. Lower rates in the coming months would do the most to keep sales growing.

Here's the wildcard worth watching that most market recaps skip: if the recent peace deal in the Persian Gulf holds, energy prices could ease — and softer energy prices open the door for inflation to cool and rates to drift back down. No one should expect rates to fall as fast as they rose, but the path lower is plausible if that scenario plays out. For a buyer sitting on the fence in our market, that's the variable to keep an eye on.

If you're buying this summer

Improving inventory means more options and more room to make an informed decision rather than a rushed one. The buyers who do well in a market like this are the prepared ones — financing lined up, target neighborhoods clear, and a realistic read on what a given price point actually gets you in Sarasota. When the numbers work, our market is still moving.

If you're selling this summer

Pending sales climbing is genuinely good news for sellers — it's a more current read on buyer appetite than closed data alone. But "the market is up" is not a pricing strategy. Pricing to current conditions, in your specific segment, is what separates homes that go pending from homes that sit. I'd rather show you the real comps for your block than hand you a statewide average.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Sarasota housing market going up or down in 2026? Statewide Florida sales have risen year over year for nine straight months through May 2026, and pending sales suggest continued activity into summer. Locally, conditions vary by neighborhood and price point, so the trend in your specific segment may differ from the state average.

Is now a good time to sell a home in Sarasota? Rising pending sales point to active summer demand, which favors well-prepared, accurately priced sellers. The key is pricing to current conditions in your specific market segment rather than to a statewide headline.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2026? Rates depend heavily on inflation, which has been pushed up by energy prices. If energy costs ease, there's a credible path for rates to move lower later in the year — though likely more gradually than they climbed.

Keith Curcio is a Sarasota native and Broker Associate with Coldwell Banker Realty, specializing in coastal luxury homes across Longboat Key, Sarasota, Venice, Englewood, Bradenton, and Lakewood Ranch. Born and raised local — and reading the market block by block, not headline by headline. Call me! (941) 376-7683.